President Barack Obama might be riding high in the polls at the moment, writes John Avlon. But his unguarded conversation with his Russian counterpart shows a failure to make a clear case for what a second term might bring.
An exchange between President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was accidentally caught on an open microphone
It sounded like the dialogue from a bad spy film.
"This is my last election. After my election I have more flexibility."
"I understand. I will transmit this information to Vladimir."
But in fact it was a exchange between President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, accidentally caught on an open microphone as they discussed apparently deadlocked talks on a missile shield - and it quickly lodged itself in the American presidential campaign debate.
Paranoid hyper-partisans on the Right hailed it as a confirmation of Obama's deviousness, the latest sign that he is intent on selling out America's interests to its enemies in an unaccountable second term - when he'll have no further election to think about.
They are, as I said, paranoid and riffing off the "enemy within" narrative they've been playing since the days of Joe McCarthy, when Communists ruled the Kremlin.
But just because you're crazy doesn't mean you're stupid. This particular Obama slip will leave a mark – and just not for the reasons the wingnuts on the far-Right might think.
Yes, President Obama is riding high in the polls right now, buoyed by an improving economy – leading the presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney by double digits in some polls.
His job approval ratings are above 50 per cent for the first time since the killing of Osama bin Laden, while Romney's unfavourability ratings are already above 50 per cent - a bad sign for a non-incumbent nominee heading into the general election.
Nonetheless, this open mike slip will resonate, and probably appear in a Romney campaign ad this fall, because it highlights a core weakness of the Obama campaign – namely, his failure to make a clear case for what a second term might bring. "More of the same" isn't a satisfactory answer in US campaigns.
When the president's private diplomatic talks are revealed to contradict his public commitment to missile defence with the American people, let alone eastern European allies like Poland, it raises many more questions than it answers. It gives credence to critics who said he was only paying lip-service to the idea in the first place.
The fact that Obama's request for "more space" this election year came in a conversation with Russia's leaders does little to ease concerns; especially in the wake of yet another questionable Russian election and Moscow's decision to back the regime of Syrian dictator Assad as he slaughters his own people.
Once the president is no longer constrained by the accountability that comes from wanting re-election, centrist swing voters could be convinced that a lurch to the Left might lie ahead, despite the president's essentially pragmatic progressive record to date.
The open questions are compounded by the fact that President Obama has yet to lay out an agenda that diagnoses the current ills afflicting the country and offers a new prescription.
To date, his campaign's foundational message has been captured by this month's 17-minute David Guggenheim-produced and Tom Hanks-narrated film that essentially makes the case that the challenges Obama faced were unprecedented.
It's called The Road We've Traveled - but it sums up to "It could have been much worse". It's a slick film, but not a winning message.
The fact that Obama's request for "more space" this election year came in a conversation with Russia's leaders does little to ease concerns.
Clearly communicating policy accomplishments has not been an Obama administration strength. A bumper sticker like "Killed bin Laden, saved GM" would be too blunt for them.
Broken promises and missed opportunities litter the floor, especially when it comes to dealing with the defecit and the debt. Yes, the economy is improving, but slowly, and the fact that the signature legislative accomplishment of the Obama administration - health care reform - could very well be struck down by the Supreme Court in June is another stormcloud on the horizon.
Romney's immediate attempt to capitalise on the open mic moment, calling Obama's comments "alarming", caused a controversy of his own, when he called Russia "without question, our number one geopolitical foe".
He's levelled the same charge against Iran and China.
Discussion of foreign policy in the Republican primary campaign has largely been limited to the kind of sabre-rattling which plays well to the conservative populist base.
But Romney also violated an unwritten rule of American politics: don't criticise a president when he is travelling abroad. This in turn earned a gentle rebuke from Republican House Speaker John Boehner, who said, "While the president is overseas I think it's appropriate that people not be critical of him or our country."
Boehner, an old school congressional dealmaker proved to be the adult in the room, showing welcome restraint amid the reflexively anti-Obama impulses in the Tea Party.
President Obama has benefited somewhat from the obsessive ill-will he has received from the far-Right – they seem unhinged and irresponsible by comparison.
But despite the recently comforting poll numbers, there is no room for overconfidence among Democrats. Obama cannot hope to recapture the passion of the 2008, when his campaign was a crusade.
The historic importance of his election was achieved the moment he took the oath of office.
Making the case for a second term will have to be focused on a vision for solving specific, still unresolved problems that still face the nation.
It will require new policies, not just promises – especially when promises can seem to evaporate in negotiations with bad actors on the international stage.
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